Six stages of the decision-making process. interactive groups.nominal groups. Delphi groups.

An effective decision-making process usually involves six main steps:

1) Awareness of the need for a solution. The problem arises when the results obtained by the organization do not meet the goals set for it, which means that some aspects of its activities require improvement.

2) Diagnostics and casual analysis. After a problem or opportunity(potential to improve the performance of organizations to exceed current goals) attracted the attention of the manager, it is required to understand the specifics of the situation. The stage of the decision-making process in which managers analyze the underlying cause-and-effect relationships of a particular situation is called diagnosis, or simply assessment.

3) Development of solutions. The stage of developing solutions that meet the needs of the situation and allow to eliminate the identified shortcomings begins.

4) Choosing the best solution . After developing several feasible solutions, it is necessary to stop the choice on any one. In fact, you have to make a decision again. The best option is the one that achieves the outcome that most aligns with the organization's goals and values ​​while using the least amount of resources.

5) Implementation of the solution. At the stage of implementation of decisions, managers need, first of all, managerial, administrative abilities and the ability to convince other people. The process of implementing a decision is much like the process of implementing a strategy, its success is determined by whether management succeeds in translating guiding ideas into practical actions.

6) Evaluation of results and feedback. At the evaluation stage, the manager must analyze information about how his decision is being implemented, whether it is effective in terms of achieving goals. Feedback provides decision makers with information that can initiate a new cycle. Feedback is an element of control through which management receives signals about the need to make new decisions.

interactive group is nothing more than a meeting of employees involved in the decision-making process, who are assigned a specific task and goals. As a rule, the activity of such a group begins with the fact that the leader sets out the essence of the problem and invites the participants to express their opinion. The discussion is informal. Perhaps the discussion (which may deviate from the intended direction) will need to redefine the problem. During the conversation, possible solutions are proposed and evaluated. Ultimately, if the group members do not come to a consensus, the decision is made by voting. The simplest example of interactive decision-making is a meeting of employees of a company or a single department to discuss goals for the next year.

Some members of the group take an active part in the discussion and thus dominate it. In order to ensure "equal rights" for all, nominal groups, in which each participant contributes to the discussion and decision-making. To ensure equality of members, the work of the nominal group is strictly structured:

1. Each participant presents his ideas on the problem and the proposed solution in writing.

2. The order in which each participant's ideas are presented to the whole group is determined. For everyone to see, the main proposals are written on the board. The discussion does not begin until each participant has spoken and presented their ideas.

3. After the members of the group have become acquainted with the whole range of opinions, an open discussion begins in order to clarify and evaluate the proposals. This part of the nominal group's work is unstructured and spontaneous.

Delphi groupsallow to combine the expert opinions of their members on a non-obvious complex problem. Unlike interactive and nominal groups, face-to-face meetings and discussions of group members are excluded. According to the Delphi method, the manager's task is to find out and compare the opinions of experts on the problem under discussion. Specialists express their attitude to the problem in writing, guided by questionnaires, and the team leader summarizes them in a special summary. Conclusions and a new questionnaire on the issue are returned to the participants. Each of them gets the opportunity to get acquainted with the opinions of colleagues and, using new information, correct their proposals. The process of distributing the questionnaires and collecting the results continues until the participants reach a consensus.

4. External environment of direct and indirect impact. Characteristics of the external environment

The external environment of direct impact includes the following main elements: consumers, suppliers, competitors, the labor market, external owners, state regulatory and control bodies, strategic alliances of the enterprise with other firms. The macroenvironment of an enterprise is formed by economic, political and legal, socio-cultural, technological and international conditions.

The economic conditions of the environment reflect the general economic situation in the country or region in which the enterprise operates. It helps to understand how resources are formed and distributed. To do this, first of all, the value of GDP (GNP), its growth / fall rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate, interest rates, labor productivity, taxation rates, balance of payments, exchange rate, wages, etc. are analyzed. Changes in these macroeconomic indicators affect on the standard of living of the population, the solvency of consumers, fluctuations in demand; determines investment policy, price level, profitability, etc. Important factors in the economic environment are the monetary and fiscal policy of the state.

Sociocultural factors represent the social processes and trends taking place in society. These include: existing traditions, values, habits, ethical standards, lifestyle, people's attitude to work, consumer tastes and psychology. This includes the social structure of society, its demographic characteristics, such as the birth rate, average life expectancy, average age of the population, level of education, skills, etc. The current structure of the population determines the composition of the labor force, the level of demand, consumer preferences, the choice of markets for products . At the same time, both consumers and members of organizations are increasingly diverse.

The main modern trends that determine the tastes and values ​​of the population are: a negative attitude towards smoking, the use of strong alcoholic beverages, people's desire for a healthy lifestyle, consumption of foods with low cholesterol content, an increase in the purchasing power of children, etc.

The political and legal environment includes the characteristics of the political system, state regulation of business and the main relationship between business and government. It is important for three reasons. First, the legal system establishes the norms of business relationships, the rights, responsibilities, obligations of firms, including restrictions on certain types of activities. The correctness of the conclusion and observance of contracts, the resolution of disputes depend on the knowledge and observance of the adopted laws. In modern conditions, the role of laws on environmental protection, consumer rights, food safety standards, and fair trade is growing.

Secondly, the government's choice of priority areas for development and industries that will be supported, the mood in the government in favor of or against entrepreneurship affects its business activity. These sentiments affect the taxation of enterprise income, the establishment of tax incentives and preferential customs duties, control of prices and wages, regulation of relations between the administration and employees. In addition, it is important to know the lobbying groups, the possibilities of their influence on the adoption of certain laws.

Thirdly, political stability is taken into account when planning the activities of enterprises, especially those with relations with other countries. At the same time, it is necessary to find out the following basic characteristics of the political subsystem: political ideology that determines the policy of the government; how stable is the government; to what extent it is able to carry out its policy; what is the degree of public discontent; how strong are the opposition political structures; what parties, blocs, movements exist and what are their programs.

Technological factors include scientific and technological innovations that allow an enterprise to modernize old and create new products, improve and develop technological processes. Organizations must respond quickly to new developments in their industry and innovate themselves. This is the only way to maintain high competitiveness.

STP presents both huge opportunities for firms and equally huge threats. Many businesses fail to see new perspectives because the technical capacity to make fundamental changes is created outside of the industry in which they operate. Being late with modernization, they lose their market share, which can lead to negative consequences. In recent decades, the most significant innovations have been in the computer and telecommunications industries. In addition to them, science-intensive industries include: chemical and petrochemical, production of turbines and engines, machinery and equipment for light and food industries, nuclear energy, aerospace industry, genetic engineering, etc.

International factors show the degree of involvement or impact on the firm of business in other countries. In fact, every firm is under the influence of international factors, even if it operates in one country. It may use raw materials or products created in other countries, or face international competition in its domestic markets. In the Russian market in recent years, there has been a danger of competition from foreign firms and the displacement of Russian manufacturers by foreign ones that provide better quality goods, such as cars, computers, consumer electronics, and a number of food products. If the company operates at the international level, then the factors of the international environment affect all other elements of the external environment of the enterprise.

New customers, suppliers, competitors, government regulations, new rules, strategic alliances, etc. appear in the international environment. The organization studies the features of these factors, adapts to them, and in the end these factors change the organization itself.

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4.1.2.3. Examples of indirect and direct impacts

The external environment is those factors that are outside the organization and can affect it. The external environment in which organizations have to work is in constant motion, subject to change. One of the most important components of an organization's success is its ability to respond to and cope with these changes in the external environment. At the same time, this ability is a condition for the implementation of the planned strategic changes Minko E.V., Minko A.E. Theory of organization of production systems. M., 2007. p. 290. .

The external environment is determined by external factors of influence that can, one way or another, affect the functioning, both in the current period and in the future. However, the set of these factors and the assessment of their impact on economic activity are different for each company. Usually, an enterprise in the process of management itself determines which factors, and to what extent, can affect the results of its activities in the present period and in the future. The conclusions of ongoing research or current events are accompanied by the development of specific tools and methods for making appropriate management decisions. Moreover, first of all, environmental factors that affect the state of the internal environment of the company are identified and taken into account.

One way to define the environment and facilitate accounting of its impact on the organization is to divide external factors into two main groups: microenvironment (environment of direct impact) and macroenvironment (environment of indirect impact).

The direct impact environment is also called the direct business environment of the organization. This environment is formed by such subjects of the environment that directly affect the activities of a particular organization. We include the following entities, which we will discuss further: suppliers, consumers, competitors, laws and government agencies.

The direct impact environment includes factors that directly affect the operations of the entity and are directly affected by the operations of the entity. These factors include suppliers, workforce, government laws and regulations, customers, and competitors. Management: Textbook for universities / Ed. prof.M. M. Maksimtsova, prof. M.A. Komarov. - 2nd ed., revised. and additional - M.: UNITI-DANA, 2007. 359 p.

Suppliers. From the point of view of a systems approach, an organization is a mechanism for transforming inputs into outputs. The main varieties of inputs are materials, equipment, energy, capital and labor. The dependency between an organization and a network of suppliers providing the input of these resources is one of the most striking examples of the direct impact of the environment on the operations and success of an organization. Receiving resources from other countries may be more profitable in terms of prices, quality or quantity, but at the same time more dangerous by increasing environmental factors such as fluctuations in exchange rates or political instability.

Materials. Some organizations depend on a continuous flow of materials. Examples: engineering firms, distribution firms (distributors), and retail stores. The inability to ensure the supply in the required volumes can create great difficulties for such organizations.

Capital. To grow and prosper, a company needs not only suppliers of materials, but also capital. There are several potential investors: banks, federal loan programs, stockholders, and individuals who accept company bills or buy company bonds. As a rule, the better the company is doing, the higher its ability to negotiate with suppliers on favorable terms and receive the required amount of funds. Small businesses, especially venture capitals, are now experiencing great difficulty in obtaining the necessary funds.

Labor resources. Adequate provision of the workforce with the necessary specialties and qualifications is necessary for the implementation of tasks related to the achievement of the goals set, i.e. for the effectiveness of the organization itself. Without people able to effectively use complex technology, capital and materials, all of the above is of little use. The development of a number of industries is currently constrained by the lack of the necessary specialists.

laws and government agencies. Many laws and government agencies also affect organizations. In a predominantly private economy, the interaction between buyers and sellers of every input and every output is subject to numerous legal restrictions. Each organization has a specific legal status, whether it be a sole proprietorship, a company, a corporation, or a not-for-profit corporation, and it is this that determines how the organization can conduct its business and what taxes it must pay. The number and complexity of laws dealing specifically with business has increased dramatically in the 20th century. No matter how the management treats these laws, it has to adhere to them or reap the rewards of refusal to comply with the law in the form of fines or even a complete cessation of business.

State bodies. Organizations are required to comply not only with federal and local laws, but also with the requirements of state regulatory authorities. These bodies provide enforcement of laws in their respective areas of competence, as well as introduce their own requirements, often also having the force of law.

Consumers. Many take the view of renowned management scholar Peter F. Drucker that the only true purpose of a business is to create a customer. This means the following: the very survival and justification of the existence of the organization depends on its ability to find a consumer of the results of its activities and satisfy its needs. The importance of consumers to business is clear.

Customers, by deciding what goods and services they want and at what price, determine almost everything related to the results of its activities for the organization. Thus, the need to meet the needs of customers affects the interaction of the organization with suppliers of materials and labor resources.

Competitors are an external factor whose influence cannot be disputed. The management of each enterprise clearly understands that if the needs of consumers are not met as effectively as competitors do, the enterprise will not stay afloat for a long time. In many cases, competitors rather than consumers determine what kind of performance can be sold and what price can be asked.

It is important to understand that consumers are not the only object of competition for organizations. The latter may also compete for labor, materials, capital, and the right to use certain technical innovations. The reaction to competition depends on such internal factors as working conditions, wages and the nature of the relationship of managers with subordinates.

The indirect impact environment refers to factors that may not have a direct immediate impact on operations, but nonetheless affect them. Here we are talking about such factors as the state of the economy, scientific and technological progress, socio-cultural and political changes, the influence of group interests and events in other countries that are significant for the organization.

Indirect environmental factors usually do not affect the operations of organizations as noticeably as direct environmental factors. However, management needs to take them into account.

The indirect impact environment is usually more complex than the direct impact environment. Management is often forced to rely on assumptions about such an environment, based on incomplete information, in an attempt to predict the possible consequences for the organization.

Let's consider the main environmental factors of indirect impact. These include technology, the state of the economy, sociocultural and political factors, and relationships with local communities.

Economic forces. There are many economic factors that can affect an organization. For example, such as how affordable credit is, what effect currency exchange rates have, how much taxes you have to pay, and many others. The ability of an organization to remain profitable is directly affected by the overall health and well-being of the economy, the stage in which the business cycle develops. Bad economic conditions will reduce the demand for goods and services of organizations, while more favorable ones can provide prerequisites for its growth. The macroeconomic environment as a whole will determine the level of ability of organizations to achieve their economic goals.

When analyzing the external environment for a particular organization, it is required to evaluate a number of economic indicators. They are exchange rates, interest rates, economic growth rates, inflation rates and others.

Social and cultural factors shape the way we live, work, consume and have a significant impact on almost all organizations. New trends create a type of consumer and, accordingly, create a need for other goods and services, defining new strategies for the organization. This is evidenced by the increased concern of Western consumers about the state of the environment, to which some organizations have responded by using recyclable packaging and phasing out the use of CFCs in their production.

Political and legal factors. Various factors of a legislative and state nature can influence the level of existing opportunities and threats in the organization's activities. National and foreign governments can be for a number of organizations the main regulators of their activities, sources of subsidies, employers and buyers. This may mean that for these organizations, the assessment of the political situation may be the most important aspect of the analysis of the external environment.

Some of these factors affect all businesses, such as changes in tax laws. Others are essential, first of all, for political organizations, for example, the alignment of political forces or the results of elections to the State Duma. Still others - only a small number of firms operating in the market, for example, antitrust laws. However, to one degree or another, directly or indirectly, political and legal factors affect all organizations. For example, a toy manufacturer will be affected by toy safety standards, changes in the rules for importing and exporting raw materials, equipment, technologies and finished products, changes in government tax policy, etc.

Technological factors. The revolutionary technological changes and discoveries of recent decades, such as robotic manufacturing, the penetration of computers into everyday human life, new types of communication, transportation, weapons, and much more, present great opportunities and serious threats, the impact of which managers must be aware of and evaluate. Some discoveries can create new industries and shut down old ones.

The impact of technological factors can be assessed as a process of creating a new and destroying the old. Accelerating technological change is shortening the average product life cycle, so organizations must anticipate what changes new technologies bring with them. These changes can affect not only production, but also other functional areas, for example, personnel (selection and training of personnel for work with new technologies or the problem of laying off excess labor released due to the introduction of new, more productive technological processes) or, for example, , for marketing services, which are tasked with developing methods for selling new types of products Meskon M., Albert M., Hedouri F.. Fundamentals of management. M., 2007. S. 527. .

14. External environment: factors of direct impact. EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE ORGANIZATION - these are the conditions and factors that arise independently of its (organization) activities and have a significant impact on it. In addition, they contribute to the functioning, survival and efficiency of its work. External factors are divided into factors of direct and indirect impact.

To the factors of direct influence include resource providers, consumers, competitors, labor resources, the state, trade unions, shareholders (if the enterprise is a joint-stock company), which have a direct impact on the organization's activities;

To factors indirect impact include factors that do not directly affect the activities of the organization, but they should be taken into account to develop the right strategy. The following factors of indirect influence can be distinguished:

1) political factors - the main directions of state policy and methods of its implementation; possible changes in the legislative and regulatory framework; international agreements concluded by the government in the field of tariffs and trade, etc.;

2) economic factors - inflation rates; the level of employment of labor resources; international balance of payments; interest and tax rates; size and dynamics of GDP; labor productivity, etc.;

3) social factors of the external environment - the attitude of the population to work and quality of life; customs and traditions existing in society; the mentality of society; level of education, etc.;

4) technological factors - the opportunities associated with the development of science and technology, which allow you to quickly change to the production and sale of a technologically promising product, to predict the moment of abandonment of the technology used.

15. Characteristics of the external environment. Many environmental factors can influence an organization.

The characteristics of the external environment include: interconnectedness of factors; complexity; mobility; uncertainty.

The interrelationship of environmental factors is the level of force with which a change in one factor affects other factors.

The complexity of the external environment is understood as the number of factors to which the organization is obliged to respond, as well as the level of variability of each of them.

Environment fluidity is the rate at which change occurs in an organization's environment.

The uncertainty of the external environment is a function of the amount of information that an organization has about a particular factor, as well as a function of the confidence in this information.

The external environment of the organization of direct impact:

suppliers (raw materials, materials, finance) of resources, equipment, energy, capital and labor;

state bodies (the organization is obliged to comply with the requirements of state regulatory bodies, that is, the enforcement of laws in the areas of competence of these bodies);

consumers (according to Peter Drucker's point of view, the goal of an organization is to create a consumer, since its existence and survival depends on the ability to find a consumer, the results of its activities and satisfy its request);

competitors - persons, groups of persons, firms, enterprises competing in achieving identical goals, the desire to possess the same resources, benefits, occupy a position in the market;

labor resources - part of the country's population, which has a set of physical and spiritual abilities necessary to participate in the labor process.

External environment of indirect impact:

technology - a set of means, processes, operations, with the help of which elements entering production are transformed into output ones;

the state of the economy - affects the cost of all imported resources and the ability of all consumers to buy certain goods and services;

sociocultural factors - attitudes, life values ​​and traditions that affect the organization.

Internal environment of the organization— situational factors within the organization. Key variables within an organization include goals, structure, tasks, technology, and people.

Goals are specific, end states or desired outcomes that a group seeks to achieve by working together. The structure of the organization is a logical relationship of levels of management and functional areas, built in such a form that allows you to most effectively achieve the goals of the organization.

Tasks - a specific work, a series of works that must be completed in a predetermined way in a predetermined time frame.

The first shell closest to the organization is direct exposure environment, which includes factors that directly affect the operations of the organization and are influenced by its operations: customers, suppliers, competitors, government agencies and public opinion.

This shell is unique, it cannot be exactly the same for different organizations: each airline has its own competitors, each university has its own students, each library has its own sources of equipment, etc.

The exceptional significance of each of the elements of this dimension of the external environment requires their more detailed consideration.

Consumers - those who are ready to purchase a product produced by an organization on whom income or justification for existence depends (for non-profit structures). It can be both separate individuals, and their various groups. The survival of an organization depends on its ability to find customers for its products and meet their needs.

The organization needs to systematically obtain comprehensive information about consumers, including quantitative and qualitative parameters. This kind of information allows you to analyze the market from the standpoint of demand through an assessment of:

  • the absolute size of the market;
  • market growth rates;
  • the degree of satisfaction of demand in the industry (market saturation);
  • concentration of buyers;
  • consumption stability;
  • structure of customer needs;
  • income level of customers, purchasing power;
  • volume of purchases;
  • purchase motives;
  • type of acquisition process;
  • ways of obtaining information by the consumer;
  • changes in lifestyle and shopping habits;
  • price level and its changes;
  • prices of other products (cost of living);
  • demand for new products;
  • emergence of new customer groups.

Understanding their customers, present and future, allows managers to correctly predict changes in customer demand patterns and make realistic plans for the future.

Suppliers provide the organization with what we have called the input, the flow of the necessary materials, which are then subjected to transformations. Materials are understood as a wide range of resources: equipment, tools, raw materials, energy, money, securities, information, labor force of various professions and qualifications. All organizations, without exception, depend on suppliers, but the alignment of forces can be different. If there is one large supplier in the region, organizations for which he is the main source of materials become dependent on him; and vice versa, the abundance of suppliers, the ease of their change outweigh the balance in favor of the one who uses such supplies.

Analysis of this element of the external environment, along with an assessment of stability, reliability, long-term work for each partner, for their groups, for all deliveries as a whole, involves tracking:

  • prices, quality, delivery of raw materials;
  • relationships with capital providers (banks);
  • labor market;
  • distribution networks, positions of wholesalers;
  • change in the role of sellers.

It is extremely rare to find organizations that are market-oriented and do not have competitors. Apart from monopolies generated by natural, economic or legal causes, all others are forced to compete for market share with firms producing a similar product. Not only consumers are the object of competition, but also raw materials, financial, human and other resources. The prices for the product and for the main resources depend on the competitive situation in the industry. Competitors often set each other the pace of change, the level of quality, the degree of business innovation.

The study of competitors is an indispensable concern of the management of the organization. First of all, the circle of real and potential competitors (firms that can enter the market and products that can replace existing ones) is determined. This requires monitoring of such important parameters as:

  • substitute products;
  • new products introduced by competitors;
  • size and number of competitors;
  • new (potential) competitors;
  • changes in competitors' strategies;
  • distribution (shares) of the market among producers;
  • barriers to entry of new firms into the industry;
  • average price level;
  • export and import changes.

This is not the end of the analysis, and the main competitors are examined in comparison with the firm by function (production, marketing, R&D, personnel, finance, etc.). The organization needs not just detailed information about market rivals, but information that is comparable with internal indicators, reflecting the strengths and weaknesses of manufacturers.

government agencies, as well as the public policies that they must implement, have a significant impact on organizations. The need to comply with the laws established in this state poses another task for the organization - taking into account the state of the legislation, constant attention to changes in it. Key points to keep in mind:

  • economic law;
  • government policy on income and prices;
  • subsidies and taxes;
  • cuts in government spending;
  • legal infrastructures;
  • tariffs and restrictions on foreign trade;
  • labor law;
  • areas of regulation (ecology, waste, energy, etc.).

In addition to state lawmaking, local governments, through their own regulatory ordinances, influence the life of organizations. Enterprises are subject to additional taxes and fees, they are required to purchase licenses for certain types of activities, restrictions are imposed on the import and export of products, on their price level. All these variables must be taken into account by the organization both in daily activities and in the preparation of development plans for the future.

Public opinion in this context is understood as the opinion of the community in the territory of which or near which the organization operates. The public is interested in enterprises providing permanent employment, a certain level of wages, participating in the formation of the local budget, in various cultural and charitable events, etc., without producing negative external effects. It is the negative public opinion that can become a constraint on the way of expanding the market, production, and access to rare resources. It must not only be studied, but also formed, working in the main areas:

  • mass media;
  • industry organizations;
  • financial unions;
  • trade unions;
  • party life;
  • local sources of public opinion formation. The growing importance of public opinion today is reflected in the special public relations services created by many organizations.